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Oscars 2017: Predicting Best Picture

January 23, 2017

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Let’s get the Deadpool for Best Picture talk out of the way.

The salty superhero flick has been picking up several awards guild nominations ahead of tomorrow morning’s Oscar announcements. The campaign for the movie is having a good time with all this buzz. But does it deserve a nomination?

Probably not. It’s fine, it’s funny, it did its job and made a ton of cash and everything. I enjoyed it for what it was, but a Best Picture nomination? I understand it will bring in a new audience and get people talking about the Oscars who normally wouldn’t care at all, but can we just… not?

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Anyway, for the sake of argument let’s say Deadpool does make it. That leaves at least four, potentially nine slots for some terrific films. La La Land is a lock, as are Manchester by The Sea and Moonlight. These are the three heavy hitters, to only for Best Picture but for the entire evening. There’s four. And then things begin to open up for a whole host of films. If they stop at five nominees (they won’t), expect Arrival to grab that all-important fifth spot.

If (when) they go to six, Hell or High Water could very well surprise a few people. But make no mistake, it would deserve a nomination. I have a feeling the nominee list will end at seven, and will end with Denzel Washington’s Fences. But let’s say they go all the way to ten, which would be surprising given the relatively thin 2016 slate. Films like Hacksaw Ridge and Hidden Figures have legitimate chances, but out of those two give me Hidden Figures. There’s eight.

Then there are films like Loving, Lion, and Martin Scorsese’s late-to-the-party Silence vying for the last two slots. To fill out ten, let’s go with Loving and Silence, though I don’t think the field will reach this far.