Monkeys Fighting Robots

As the long road to the Oscars marches on, the identity of the eventual front-runners becomes ever-clearer. The Screen Actor Guild Awards are very important in establishing the front runner for Best Actor, Actress, and Supporting Actor and Actress. Often seen as the deciding vote, the SAG can all but make certain who the winner will be.

This is the third in a series of analyses dedicated to decoding the Oscars. Follow along as we predict who will be taking the stop spots come march, and who will be left wanting. Without further ado, the Screen Actors Guild Awards 2018 winners:

1Best Actor – Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”

Oscar Chances: Like the character he portrayed, Oldman will be making a grand speech come March.

Why?: Only once since 1995 has an actor won the SAG, Critics’ Choice, and Golden Globe – Drama nomination, and then not gone on to win the Oscar. That was in 2001, and Russel Crowe went home trophy-less. That’s not going to happen again.

2Best Actress – Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Oscar Chances: No billboard campaign necessary; this is McDormand’s trophy to lose.

Why?: Like Best Actor, only once since ’95 have the SAG, Critics’ Choice, and Golden Globes lined up, but not led to an Oscar. And, like Best Actor, it’s probably not going to happen twice.

3Best Supporting Actor – Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Oscar Chances: You should be noticing a pattern here.

Why?: See above. Same deal. Patterns are wonderful things.

4Best Supporting Actress – Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”

I, Tonya

Oscar Chances: Guaranteed!

Why?: This was already a sure thing after the Critics’ choice Awards, so the SAG is simply the bow on top.

5Best Picture – “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Three Billboards

Oscar Chances: Probably not…but maybe.

Why?: This is a really weird year for Best Picture. Shape of Water and Three Billboards have split the major awards so far. Shape has taken the PGA and Critics’ Choice wins, while Three Billboards has taken the Golden Globe and SAG Best Ensemble.

The Golden Globe and SAG have lined up only 4 times since 1995. Each of those times, the film in question won the Oscar. But here’s the problem: no film since ’95 has won the SAG and Golden Globe without also taking the PGA and the Critics’ Choice.

Which means that the Best Picture race is in a place it has only been in 3 times since 1995. Two of those times, the winner followed the CC/PGA pick (The Hurt LockerThe Artist). The one time it did not was last year, when Moonlight took the win over La La Land.

Three Billboards is not Moonlight, and this is not the same competition fielded in 2017. So it’s unlikely.

But maybe.

What do you think of the SAG wins? Who do you want to see take the stage in March? Let us know on Facebook, Twitter, or the Comments below!